Nacional vs Alverca
J. Ramirez
67'
Predictions
|
Probability %
1
x
2
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Nacional
Alverca
|
Probability %
1
x
2
42%
28%
31%
|
Pred
1
|
Avg. Goal
2.71
|
Score Pred.
2-1
|
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Nacional
Alverca
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
49%
51%
|
Pred
Over
|
Avg. Goal
2.71
|
Score Pred.
2-1
|
| HТ/FT Probability % | HT Pred. | FT Pred. | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Nacional
Alverca
|
HТ/FT Probability %
23%
|
HT Pred.
1
|
FT Pred.
1
|
Score Pred.
2-1
|
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Nacional
Alverca
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
56%
44%
|
Pred
Yes
|
Avg. Goal
2.71
|
Score Pred.
2-1
|
| Probability % | Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Nacional
Alverca
|
Probability %
57%
|
Pred
Home +0
|
Avg. Goal
2.71
|
Score Pred.
2-1
|
Double chance : draw or Alverca
Nacional is coming into this match in a difficult moment, having lost their last three games without scoring a goal. They are struggling to find good form. Alverca, on the other hand, has had a mixed run with a couple of wins and draws recently, so they seem to be in slightly better shape. When these two teams met earlier in the season, Alverca won a very tight game by a single goal.
This looks like it could be a close match, but based on the recent struggles of the home team and Alverca's slightly more positive results, Alverca is more likely to avoid defeat. A draw is a strong possibility, but the away team has a good chance to get a result.
Last Updated: 16 Apr 2026 07:23 AMÂ
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Substitutes for Nacional 
Filipe Soares
' Out: Daniel Junior
63
Matheus Dias
87' Out: Gabriel Veron
87
J. Aurelio
' Out: Liziero
90
Pablo Ruan
90' Out: J. Ramirez
90
Substitutes for Alverca
D. Gui
46' Out: Rhaldney
46
V. Moreira
' Out: Lincoln
75
Marezi
' Out: Sandro Lima
75
M. Clairicia
' Out: Figueiredo
75
Zakaria Kassary
' Out: Chiquinho
88
REFEREE
M. Nogueira
- Nacional have lost their last three league matches, failing to score in each defeat.
- Alverca have won two of their last three away fixtures in the league.
- The only previous meeting this season saw Alverca secure a 1-0 victory over Nacional.
- Nacional average 1.21 goals per game this season, slightly lower than Alverca's 1.37.
- Despite recent form, Nacional average more shots per game (11.69) than Alverca (8.04).
- Both teams have identical 50% median possession in their matches this campaign.
- Prediction models heavily favor Alverca on form (67% vs 33%) and attacking strength (73% vs 27%).
- Nacional are rated stronger defensively in the model comparison (62% vs 38%).
- The overall prediction percentage gives both a draw and an Alverca win a 45% chance.
- The 'Double Chance: Draw or Alverca' market is the highlighted prediction with odds of 1.68.
- Alverca have a 100% head-to-head and goals comparison advantage in the statistical model.
- Nacional's last victory was a 1-0 away win back in mid-March.
1/
0/
1
WINS
DRAWS
WINS
Total
Per Match
6
Corners
10
34
Fouls
25
2
Offsides
4
27
Shots
18
9
Shots on Goal
8
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Goals
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
1
Clean Sheets
1
Last matches for NAC 
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
25 APR, 2026
Nacional
0
Tondela
0
D
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
18 APR, 2026
Nacional
1
Alverca
0
W
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
12 APR, 2026
Nacional
0
Benfica
2
L
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
04 APR, 2026
Nacional
2
Estrela
0
W
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
21 MAR, 2026
Nacional
0
Famalicao
1
L
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
15 MAR, 2026
Nacional
0
Estoril
1
L
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
07 MAR, 2026
Nacional
1
Moreirense
1
D
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
28 FEB, 2026
Nacional
1
SC Braga
2
L
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
21 FEB, 2026
Nacional
0
Arouca
3
L
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
15 FEB, 2026
Nacional
0
FC Porto
1
L
Last matches for ALV
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
24 APR, 2026
Alverca
2
Arouca
1
W
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
18 APR, 2026
Alverca
0
Nacional
1
L
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
12 APR, 2026
Alverca
3
Casa Pia
1
W
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
04 APR, 2026
Alverca
2
Rio Ave
1
W
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
22 MAR, 2026
Alverca
1
Sporting CP
4
L
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
14 MAR, 2026
Alverca
2
GIL Vicente
2
D
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
07 MAR, 2026
Alverca
0
AVS
0
D
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
28 FEB, 2026
Alverca
1
Guimaraes
1
D
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
21 FEB, 2026
Alverca
1
Santa Clara
1
D
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
13 FEB, 2026
Alverca
1
Tondela
1
D
#
Team
PL
W
D
L
GD
PTS
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
HIGHEST ODDS
2.33
1xBet
3.51
Pinnacle
3.17
1xBet
97.13 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
1xBet
Bonus
2.33
3.48
3.17
96.90%
Pinnacle
2.32
3.51
3.15
96.77%
Betano
2.30
3.45
3.10
95.49%
Dafabet
2.30
3.50
3.15
96.34%
SBO
2.26
3.28
2.93
91.86%
HIGHEST ODDS
2.95
Pinnacle
2.31
Pinnacle
3.74
Pinnacle
96.22 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
Pinnacle
2.95
2.31
3.74
96.22%
Betano
2.92
2.15
3.55
91.80%
Bet365
2.88
2.20
3.60
92.63%
Unknown
2.88
2.15
3.50
91.07%
Betfair
2.80
2.10
3.50
89.36%
HIGHEST ODDS
2.63
888Sport
2.52
Betano
3.30
William Hill
92.59 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
888Sport
Bonus
2.63
2.38
3.30
90.63%
William Hill
2.62
2.38
3.30
90.51%
Unibet
2.55
2.50
3.20
90.53%
Betano
2.55
2.52
3.25
91.18%
Bet365
2.50
2.50
3.20
89.89%
