Portugal vs Croatia

Portugal
w l d w d
2 - 1
2.18
xG
1.34
Full Time
Croatia
l w l w w
C. Ronaldo
68'
Gonçalo Ramos
90'+4'
I. Perisic
53'
Predictions
Stats
Odds
Predictions

Double chance : Portugal or draw

Portugal have had a tough time lately, losing their last two games by heavy scores and drawing the others, so they are definitely not in a good run of form. Croatia, on the other hand, have also been struggling, winning only once in their last five outings and losing most of the rest, so both teams seem out of sorts at the moment.

Since there are no recent head-to-head meetings to look at, it's hard to say if this match will see many goals. Given that both sides have been losing games and not scoring much, this match looks like it could be tight and close. Overall, based on the data, Portugal appear slightly stronger defensively, but because both teams are in poor shape, the most likely outcome is a draw or a narrow win for Portugal.

Last Updated: 30 Jun 2026 07:20 PM
starting lineups
 
D. Costa
 
N. Mendes
 
R. Veiga
7.5
 
RĂşben Dias
 
JoĂŁo Cancelo
 
Vitinha
 
J. Neves
 
R. Leao
 
B. Fernandes
 
Pedro Neto
7.2
 
C. Ronaldo
 
D. Livakovic
7.9
 
I. Perisic
 
Marin Pongračić
 
J. Sutalo
 
J. Stanisic
 
M. Kovacic
6.9
 
L. Modrić
 
M. Baturina
 
P. Sučić
 
N. Vlasic
 
A. Budimir
field field
substitutes
Substitutes for Portugal
Substitutes for Croatia
statistics
60 Ball Possession 40
2 Goals 1
2.18 Expected Goals 1.34
match facts

REFEREE

E. Eskas

STADIUM

BMO Field

LOCATION

Toronto, Ontario

  • Portugal are the heavy favorites with a 45% win probability, while Croatia are given just a 10% chance of victory.
  • Croatia have lost four of their last five matches across all competitions, including a 2-1 defeat in their most recent game.
  • Portugal have failed to win any of their last three outings, recording two draws and a crushing 5-0 loss.
  • Portugal dominate possession on average (61.25%) compared to Croatia (54.70%), suggesting they will control the midfield.
  • Portugal average 2.00 goals per game, significantly higher than Croatia’s 1.18, highlighting their superior attacking threat.
  • Defensively, Portugal hold a massive 83% advantage over Croatia in the pre-match comparison, indicating a strong backline.
  • Portugal also average more shots per game (12.88) than Croatia (9.70), underlining their offensive pressure.
  • The Poisson distribution model gives Portugal an 84% edge over Croatia, further reinforcing their dominance in expected goals.
  • The 'Double Chance: Portugal or Draw' market offers a safe bet at odds of 1.22 with Betano, reflecting the low risk of a Croatia win.
  • Despite recent struggles, Portugal’s overall statistical profile (66.5% total comparison) strongly favors them over Croatia (33.5%).
  • This match will be played at BMO Field, a neutral venue for both European sides in the 2026 World Cup.
  • With no previous head-to-head data available, this will be the first competitive meeting between Portugal and Croatia.
Last Updated: 30 Jun 2026 07:20 PM
head to head team stats
Total
Per Match
9 Corners 5
6 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 4
15 Shots 14
3 Shots on Goal 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 0
2 Goals 1
1 Goals Conceded 2
0 Clean Sheets 0
world cup standings
#
Team
PL
W
D
L
GD
PTS
#12
2
1
0
1
0
3
#25
1
0
0
1
-1
0