Toulouse vs Marseille
M. Greenwood
18'
Predictions
Stats
Odds
Predictions
Double chance : draw or Marseille
Toulouse is coming into this match in a tough patch, having struggled to win recently. They have lost a few games and drawn a couple, so they are not in their best shape. Marseille hasn't been doing much better, also finding wins hard to come by and coming off a couple of losses.
Looking at how these teams have played each other, their games are often very close and exciting, with several recent meetings seeing goals from both sides. Given both teams' current struggles and their history of tight matches, this game looks very evenly matched and could easily end in a draw.
Last Updated: 05 Mar 2026 10:53 AM6.2
1
6.7
3
6.9
2
6.7
19
6.2
24
6.7
18
6.6
23
7.3
12
7.3
10
6.7
15
6.2
20
7.9
1
6.9
32
7.3
5
7.3
28
6.6
14
6.2
23
7.2
19
7
22
7.2
27
6.9
17
7.7
10
Substitutes for Toulouse S. Hidalgo
46' Out: Emersonn
46
A. Vossah
69' Out: C. Casseres
69
J. Russell-Rowe
78' Out: W. Kamanzi
78
J. Vignolo
79' Out: Dayann Methalie
79
Mario Sauer
84' Out: P. Demba
84
Substitutes for Marseille Tochukwu Nnadi
66' Out: G. Kondogbia
66
A. Gouiri
66' Out: M. Greenwood
66
A. Vermeeren
82' Out: Q. Timber
82
Emerson
83' Out: P. Aubameyang
83
REFEREE
B. Dechepy
STADIUM
Stadium de Toulouse
LOCATION
Toulouse
- This is a Ligue 1 2025-2026 clash between Toulouse and Marseille at the Stadium de Toulouse.
- The reverse fixture this season ended in a 2-2 draw.
- Toulouse are winless in their last five matches (D2 L3).
- Marseille are also without a win in their last five games (D2 L3).
- Both teams have struggled for clean sheets recently, conceding in their last several matches.
- Historically, Marseille have the edge in recent head-to-heads, winning three of the last seven meetings.
- Marseille averages higher possession (57.6%) than Toulouse (50.9%) this season.
- The match prediction heavily favors a double chance of draw or Marseille win.
- Statistical models give Marseille a 60.8% total win probability compared to Toulouse's 39.2%.
- Key factors favoring Marseille include recent form, attack, and head-to-head record.
- Toulouse's main statistical advantage comes from their defensive ratings.
- The highest odds for the predicted outcome (Draw/Away) are 1.37 from Pinnacle.
0/
3/
5
WINS
DRAWS
WINS
Toulouse
0
–
1
07 Mar, 2026
Ligue 1 2025-2026
Ligue 1 2025-2026
Marseille
Marseille
2
–
2
29 Nov, 2025
Ligue 1 2025-2026
Ligue 1 2025-2026
Toulouse
Marseille
3
–
2
06 Apr, 2025
Ligue 1 2024-2025
Ligue 1 2024-2025
Toulouse
Toulouse
1
–
3
31 Aug, 2024
Ligue 1 2024-2025
Ligue 1 2024-2025
Marseille
Toulouse
2
–
2
21 Apr, 2024
Ligue 1 2023-2024
Ligue 1 2023-2024
Marseille
Marseille
0
–
0
17 Sep, 2023
Ligue 1 2023-2024
Ligue 1 2023-2024
Toulouse
Toulouse
2
–
3
19 Feb, 2023
Ligue 1 2022-2023
Ligue 1 2022-2023
Marseille
Marseille
6
–
1
29 Dec, 2022
Ligue 1 2022-2023
Ligue 1 2022-2023
Toulouse
Total
Per Match
25
Corners
40
3.1
Corners
5
88
Fouls
93
11
Fouls
11.6
13
Offsides
13
1.6
Offsides
1.6
74
Shots
114
9.3
Shots
14.3
28
Shots on Goal
39
3.5
Shots on Goal
4.9
18
Yellow Cards
16
2.3
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
0.1
Red Cards
0
10
Goals
20
1.3
Goals
2.5
20
Goals Conceded
10
2.5
Goals Conceded
1.3
1
Clean Sheets
2
0.1
Clean Sheets
0.3
Last matches for TOU
Ligue 1 2025-2026
17 APR, 2026
Toulouse
2
Lens
3
L
Ligue 1 2025-2026
12 APR, 2026
Toulouse
0
Lille
4
L
Ligue 1 2025-2026
03 APR, 2026
Toulouse
1
Paris Saint Germain
3
L
Ligue 1 2025-2026
21 MAR, 2026
Toulouse
1
Lorient
0
W
Ligue 1 2025-2026
15 MAR, 2026
Toulouse
4
Metz
3
W
Ligue 1 2025-2026
07 MAR, 2026
Toulouse
0
Marseille
1
L
Ligue 1 2025-2026
28 FEB, 2026
Toulouse
0
Rennes
1
L
Ligue 1 2025-2026
21 FEB, 2026
Toulouse
1
Paris FC
1
D
Ligue 1 2025-2026
15 FEB, 2026
Toulouse
1
Le Havre
2
L
Ligue 1 2025-2026
01 FEB, 2026
Toulouse
0
Auxerre
0
D
Last matches for MAR
Ligue 1 2025-2026
18 APR, 2026
Marseille
0
Lorient
2
L
Ligue 1 2025-2026
10 APR, 2026
Marseille
3
Metz
1
W
Ligue 1 2025-2026
05 APR, 2026
Marseille
1
Monaco
2
L
Ligue 1 2025-2026
22 MAR, 2026
Marseille
1
Lille
2
L
Ligue 1 2025-2026
13 MAR, 2026
Marseille
1
Auxerre
0
W
Ligue 1 2025-2026
07 MAR, 2026
Marseille
1
Toulouse
0
W
Ligue 1 2025-2026
01 MAR, 2026
Marseille
3
Lyon
2
W
Ligue 1 2025-2026
20 FEB, 2026
Marseille
0
Stade Brestois 29
2
L
Ligue 1 2025-2026
14 FEB, 2026
Marseille
2
Strasbourg
2
D
Ligue 1 2025-2026
08 FEB, 2026
Marseille
0
Paris Saint Germain
5
L
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PL
W
D
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GD
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