Arouca vs Tondela
Double chance : Arouca or draw
Arouca are coming into this match on the back of a solid away win, which snapped a rough run of three losses in a row. They’ve been struggling to find consistency, but that recent victory should give them a boost. Tondela, on the other hand, have been up and down, winning two of their last five matches but also losing twice. However, they have been scoring more regularly than Arouca in recent games.
The last three meetings between these two sides have all seen at least three goals, with Tondela winning two of those and the other ending in a draw. With both teams showing they can score and the head-to-head history suggesting goals, this match looks like it could be an open, entertaining game. Given the form and recent results, Arouca’s home advantage might just tip the balance, making a draw or a narrow home win the most likely outcome.
Last Updated: 14 May 2026 07:22 AM
Substitutes for Arouca
Substitutes for Tondela REFEREE
A. Nobre
STADIUM
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
LOCATION
Arouca
- Arouca and Tondela meet in a mid-table Primeira Liga clash with little to separate them on current form (Arouca W1 D1 L3, Tondela W2 D1 L2 in last five).
- Home advantage is minimal: Arouca have lost three of their last four league games, while Tondela have lost two of their last three away matches.
- Both teams have identical average goals per game this season, with Arouca at 1.21 and Tondela at 1.19.
- Arouca hold a slight edge in attack (58% attacking advantage) and have better overall possession (51% vs Tondela's 46%).
- Tondela dominate the median stats for shots (13 vs Arouca's 5) and possession (61% vs 39%) suggesting they control long periods of play.
- Head-to-head history favors Tondela, who are unbeaten in the last three meetings (W2 D1) and won the reverse fixture 3-1 earlier this season.
- Despite Tondela's H2H dominance, the prediction model gives a 50.5% total edge to Arouca, making this a very evenly matched contest.
- The most likely outcome according to bookmakers is a home win or draw (Double Chance at 1.78 odds with Betano).
- Both teams are defensively balanced on paper (50% defensive comparison each), but Tondela have conceded first in their last two away games.
- Arouca's recent form is poor, having lost four of their last five matches, with three of those defeats coming by a single goal.
- Poisson distribution gives Arouca a 61% chance of scoring more than Tondela, reinforcing their slight attacking advantage at home.
- With only a 5% difference in overall prediction (50.5% home vs 49.5% away), this fixture is statistically one of the tightest on the matchday.
Last matches for ARO
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Arouca
3
Tondela
1
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Arouca
3
GIL Vicente
1
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Arouca
2
Santa Clara
2
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Arouca
1
Alverca
2
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Arouca
1
Estrela
0
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Arouca
0
SC Braga
1
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Arouca
3
Estoril
2
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Arouca
1
Moreirense
0
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Arouca
1
Benfica
2
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Arouca
0
Famalicao
1
Last matches for TON
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Tondela
1
Arouca
3
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Tondela
2
Moreirense
0
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Tondela
1
Casa Pia
0
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Tondela
2
Sporting CP
2
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Tondela
0
Nacional
2
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Tondela
0
FC Porto
2
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Tondela
2
GIL Vicente
2
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Tondela
0
Guimaraes
5
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Tondela
0
AVS
0
Primeira Liga 2025-2026
Tondela
0
Rio Ave
1
