Arouca vs Tondela

Arouca
l w l d w
3 - 1
1.53
xG
0.51
Full Time
Tondela
l l d w w
T. Fukui
20'
A. Trezza
77'
H. Lee
85'
Rony Lopes
65'
Predictions
Stats
Odds
Predictions

Double chance : Arouca or draw

Arouca are coming into this match on the back of a solid away win, which snapped a rough run of three losses in a row. They’ve been struggling to find consistency, but that recent victory should give them a boost. Tondela, on the other hand, have been up and down, winning two of their last five matches but also losing twice. However, they have been scoring more regularly than Arouca in recent games.

The last three meetings between these two sides have all seen at least three goals, with Tondela winning two of those and the other ending in a draw. With both teams showing they can score and the head-to-head history suggesting goals, this match looks like it could be an open, entertaining game. Given the form and recent results, Arouca’s home advantage might just tip the balance, making a draw or a narrow home win the most likely outcome.

Last Updated: 14 May 2026 07:22 AM
starting lineups
 
I. De Arruabarrena
6.7
 
B. Kuipers
 
J. Sanchez
7.2
 
O. Fayed
 
Tiago Esgaio
8.7
 
T. Fukui
 
E. van Ee
 
N. Djouahra
 
P. Gozalbez
8.2
 
A. Trezza
 
I. Barbero
 
Bernardo
 
Juan Rodríguez
 
Christian Marques
 
João Silva
 
R. Conceicao
 
Hugo Félix
5.9
 
Cicero
 
Tiago Manso
 
M. Aiko
7.7
 
Rony Lopes
 
Pedro Maranhao
field field
substitutes
Substitutes for Arouca
D. Monteiro
59' Out: O. Fayed
59
D. Nandin
' Out: I. Barbero
63
H. Lee
' Out: N. Djouahra
63
Pedro Santos
' Out: P. Gozalbez
79
M. Flores
79' Out: T. Fukui
79
Substitutes for Tondela
H. Tavares
61' Out: Cicero
61
B. Kimpioka
' Out: M. Aiko
73
J. Hodge
' Out: Hugo Félix
73
A. van der Heide
' Out: R. Conceicao
81
J. Afonso
' Out: Pedro Maranhao
82
statistics
53 Ball Possession 47
3 Goals 1
1.53 Expected Goals 0.51
match facts

REFEREE

A. Nobre

STADIUM

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

LOCATION

Arouca

  • Arouca and Tondela meet in a mid-table Primeira Liga clash with little to separate them on current form (Arouca W1 D1 L3, Tondela W2 D1 L2 in last five).
  • Home advantage is minimal: Arouca have lost three of their last four league games, while Tondela have lost two of their last three away matches.
  • Both teams have identical average goals per game this season, with Arouca at 1.21 and Tondela at 1.19.
  • Arouca hold a slight edge in attack (58% attacking advantage) and have better overall possession (51% vs Tondela's 46%).
  • Tondela dominate the median stats for shots (13 vs Arouca's 5) and possession (61% vs 39%) suggesting they control long periods of play.
  • Head-to-head history favors Tondela, who are unbeaten in the last three meetings (W2 D1) and won the reverse fixture 3-1 earlier this season.
  • Despite Tondela's H2H dominance, the prediction model gives a 50.5% total edge to Arouca, making this a very evenly matched contest.
  • The most likely outcome according to bookmakers is a home win or draw (Double Chance at 1.78 odds with Betano).
  • Both teams are defensively balanced on paper (50% defensive comparison each), but Tondela have conceded first in their last two away games.
  • Arouca's recent form is poor, having lost four of their last five matches, with three of those defeats coming by a single goal.
  • Poisson distribution gives Arouca a 61% chance of scoring more than Tondela, reinforcing their slight attacking advantage at home.
  • With only a 5% difference in overall prediction (50.5% home vs 49.5% away), this fixture is statistically one of the tightest on the matchday.
Last Updated: 14 May 2026 07:22 AM
head to head team stats
Total
Per Match
21 Corners 18
56 Fouls 48
8 Offsides 9
43 Shots 36
15 Shots on Goal 15
11 Yellow Cards 9
1 Red Cards 0
8 Goals 6
6 Goals Conceded 8
1 Clean Sheets 0
primeira liga standings
#
Team
PL
W
D
L
GD
PTS
#9
34
12
6
16
-17
42
#17
34
6
10
18
-28
28