RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli

RB Leipzig
w w w w l
2 - 1
1.41
xG
0.83
Full Time
FC St. Pauli
d l d l l
X. Schlager
45'
Willi Orbán
54'
A. Ceesay
86'
Predictions
Stats
Odds
Predictions

Winner : RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig have not been in great shape lately, losing their last two matches by wide margins. They were beaten 4-1 and then 3-1, which shows they have been struggling defensively. On the other hand, FC St. Pauli have been much more solid, winning their most recent game and picking up several positive results in their last five outings, including a big 5-0 win away from home.

When these two teams have met before, the games have been close and low-scoring, with two draws and one win for St. Pauli in their last three meetings. Given that Leipzig are out of form while St. Pauli are playing well and have a good recent record in this fixture, this match looks like it could be a close contest. Based on the facts, the most likely outcome is a draw between these two sides, with St. Pauli having a strong chance to avoid defeat.

Last Updated: 07 May 2026 07:20 AM
starting lineups
 
M. Vandevoordt
 
D. Raum
7.2
 
C. Lukeba
9
 
Willi Orbán
 
Ridle Baku
6.7
 
C. Baumgartner
7.9
 
X. Schlager
 
A. Ouedraogo
 
Y. Diomande
 
Romulo Cardoso
 
B. Gruda
 
N. Vasilj
 
L. Ritzka
 
Eric Smith
 
Tomoya Ando
 
L. Oppie
 
J. Fujita
 
J. Irvine
 
C. Metcalfe
 
A. Pyrka
 
A. Hountondji
 
M. Kaars
field field
substitutes
Substitutes for RB Leipzig
69
' Out: B. Gruda
79
Substitutes for FC St. Pauli
64
64
statistics
70 Ball Possession 30
2 Goals 1
1.41 Expected Goals 0.83
match facts

REFEREE

B. Brand

  • RB Leipzig are the heavy favorites for this Bundesliga clash, with a total prediction advantage of 71.7% over FC St. Pauli.
  • Leipzig have been inconsistent at home, losing three of their last five matches, including a 4-1 defeat in their most recent fixture.
  • FC St. Pauli come into this match in good form, winning two of their last five games, including an impressive 5-0 victory on the road.
  • In head-to-head meetings, RB Leipzig have a 62% advantage, though their last three encounters have all resulted in draws or narrow losses.
  • The most recent meeting between these sides ended in a 1-1 draw earlier this season.
  • RB Leipzig average 1.86 goals per game this season, significantly higher than St. Pauli’s 1.39, highlighting a notable attacking edge.
  • Leipzig dominate on attack with a 77% advantage, making their forward line a key factor in this matchup.
  • Defensively, Leipzig also hold a clear edge (61%), which could be crucial against a St. Pauli side that struggles to create high-quality chances.
  • The Poisson distribution heavily favors the home side, giving Leipzig an 80% chance of scoring more goals.
  • St. Pauli’s away form has been mixed: while they secured a massive 5-0 win in April, they also lost 2-0 in their most recent road game.
  • RB Leipzig average 54.92% possession per match, while St. Pauli hold 51.24%, suggesting a midfield battle that Leipzig are likely to control.
  • The highest betting odds for a Leipzig win are at 1.34 (1xBet), reflecting the bookmakers' confidence in a home victory.
Last Updated: 07 May 2026 07:20 AM
head to head team stats
Total
Per Match
12 Corners 16
33 Fouls 29
8 Offsides 10
46 Shots 38
21 Shots on Goal 13
6 Yellow Cards 4
1 Red Cards 0
5 Goals 2
2 Goals Conceded 5
2 Clean Sheets 1
bundesliga standings
#
Team
PL
W
D
L
GD
PTS
#3
34
20
5
9
19
65
#18
34
6
8
20
-31
26