FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05

FC St. Pauli
l d l d l
1 - 2
0.86
xG
2.35
Full Time
FSV Mainz 05
w w l d l
A. Ceesay
87'
P. Tietz
6'
P. Mwene
40'
Predictions
Stats
Odds
Predictions
Probability %
1 x 2
Pred. Avg. Goal Score Pred.
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
Probability %
1 x 2
34%
29%
37%
Pred
X
Avg. Goal
2.59
Score Pred.
1-1
Probability %
Under / Over 2.5
Pred. Avg. Goal Score Pred.
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
Probability %
Under / Over 2.5
52%
48%
Pred
Under
Avg. Goal
2.59
Score Pred.
1-1
HŠ¢/FT Probability % HT Pred. FT Pred. Score Pred.
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
HŠ¢/FT Probability %
20%
HT Pred.
2
FT Pred.
2
Score Pred.
1-1
Probability %
Yes/ No
Pred. Avg. Goal Score Pred.
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
Probability %
Yes/ No
53%
47%
Pred
Yes
Avg. Goal
2.59
Score Pred.
1-1
Probability % Pred. Avg. Goal Score Pred.
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
Probability %
52%
Pred
Away +0
Avg. Goal
2.59
Score Pred.
1-1

Double chance : draw or FSV Mainz 05

FC St. Pauli are in poor form heading into this match. They have not won in their last two games and, more importantly, they have lost their most recent home match heavily. In fact, looking at their last five games, they have suffered two clear defeats. In contrast, FSV Mainz 05 are in excellent shape. They have won three of their last five matches, including an impressive victory away from home where they scored four goals. Their only loss in that run was a very close game.

Recent meetings between these two sides have been tight and low-scoring affairs, with two of the last three games ending 0-0. Given Mainz's strong recent form and St. Pauli's struggles, this looks like a contest the visitors are likely to edge. The match is expected to be close, but FSV Mainz 05 is the more likely winner here.

Last Updated: 01 May 2026 07:22 AM
starting lineups
Ā 
N. Vasilj
6.9
Ā 
K. Mets
Ā 
H. Wahl
Ā 
Tomoya Ando
Ā 
L. Ritzka
Ā 
Eric Smith
Ā 
J. Irvine
Ā 
A. Pyrka
Ā 
J. Fujita
Ā 
D. Sinani
Ā 
A. Hountondji
6.6
Ā 
D. Batz
Ā 
K. Potulski
Ā 
S. Posch
Ā 
D. da Costa
8.2
Ā 
P. Mwene
Ā 
N. Amiri
Ā 
K. Sano
Ā 
Paul Nebel
Ā 
S. Widmer
7.2
Ā 
P. Tietz
Ā 
S. Becker
field field
substitutes
Substitutes for FC St. Pauli
Adam DÅŗwigała
' Out: L. Ritzka
46
C. Metcalfe
' Out: D. Sinani
46
A. Ceesay
' Out: Eric Smith
65
M. Kaars
' Out: A. Hountondji
65
M. Rasmussen
' Out: J. Irvine
84
Substitutes for FSV Mainz 05
A. Sieb
' Out: S. Becker
72
D. Kohr
' Out: K. Potulski
76
A. Caci
' Out: S. Widmer
77
L. Maloney
' Out: N. Amiri
84
N. Weiper
84' Out: P. Tietz
84
statistics
52 Ball Possession 48
1 Goals 2
0.86 Expected Goals 2.35
match facts

REFEREE

T. Gerach

STADIUM

Millerntor-Stadion

LOCATION

Hamburg

  • Mainz 05 have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 93% of the key matchup statistics.
  • The last three encounters have produced only two goals, with the most recent ending 0-0 in December 2025.
  • Mainz 05 are in excellent form, winning three of their last five away matches and four of their last five overall.
  • FC St. Pauli have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last three matches at Millerntor-Stadion.
  • Mainz 05 hold a significant edge in form (78%) and attack (73%) according to the statistical comparison.
  • St. Pauli’s average of 1.39 goals per game is only marginally higher than Mainz’s 1.35, suggesting a tight contest.
  • Mainz 05 are predicted as heavy favourites, with a 73.5% total advantage over St. Pauli.
  • The betting market heavily favours a Mainz 05 draw or win, with a double chance odds of 1.47 at 1xBet.
  • St. Pauli’s defensive rating is slightly better (42% vs 58%), but Mainz dominate in goalscoring predictions (79%).
  • St. Pauli have kept two clean sheets in their last five matches, but Mainz have scored in four of their last five away games.
  • St. Pauli average 51.24% possession, while Mainz see less of the ball at 45.12%, yet remain more clinical.
  • Mainz 05 receive more yellow cards on average (3 per game) compared to St. Pauli (1), indicating a more aggressive style.
Last Updated: 01 May 2026 07:22 AM
head to head team stats
Total
Per Match
19 Corners 24
41 Fouls 38
3 Offsides 12
46 Shots 48
8 Shots on Goal 16
7 Yellow Cards 8
0 Red Cards 0
1 Goals 7
7 Goals Conceded 1
1 Clean Sheets 3
last matches
bundesliga standings
#
Team
PL
W
D
L
GD
PTS
#10
32
9
10
13
-9
37
#17
32
6
8
18
-28
26
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half

HIGHEST ODDS

2.89
1xBet
3.38
1xBet
2.69
Pinnacle
98.66 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
1xBet 1xBet Logo
Bonus
2.89
3.38
2.68
98.52%
Marathonbet Marathonbet Logo
2.84
3.32
2.64
96.89%
Pinnacle Pinnacle Logo
2.81
3.32
2.69
97.20%
Unibet Unibet Logo
2.80
3.15
2.55
93.74%
Dafabet Dafabet Logo
2.80
3.30
2.65
96.38%

HIGHEST ODDS

3.51
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
3.41
Pinnacle
96.83 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
Pinnacle Pinnacle Logo
3.51
2.20
3.41
96.83%
Marathonbet Marathonbet Logo
3.48
2.05
3.22
92.10%
1xBet 1xBet Logo
Bonus
3.48
2.05
3.22
92.10%
Bet365 Bet365 Logo
3.40
2.20
3.20
94.24%
Unibet Unibet Logo
3.40
2.10
3.20
92.35%

HIGHEST ODDS

3.12
Marathonbet
2.48
Unibet
3.00
Betano
94.60 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
Marathonbet Marathonbet Logo
3.12
2.38
2.90
92.12%
1xBet 1xBet Logo
Bonus
3.12
2.38
2.90
92.12%
William Hill William Hill Logo
3.10
2.30
2.80
89.73%
888Sport 888Sport Logo
Bonus
3.10
2.30
2.80
89.73%
Unibet Unibet Logo
3.05
2.48
2.80
91.89%