Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama

Palmeiras
w l w d l
4 - 1
1.65
xG
1.62
Full Time
Vasco DA Gama
l l d d l
J. López
47'
Vitor Roque
51'
Maurício
56'
J. López
89'
F. Colidio
90'+4'
Predictions
Stats
Odds
Predictions

Double chance : Palmeiras or draw

Palmeiras are coming into this match having won three of their last five games, although their most recent outing ended in a narrow defeat. Vasco da Gama, on the other hand, are in strong shape, with a convincing win in their last match and only one loss in their recent run. Their head-to-head meetings have often been tight and low-scoring, with several games decided by a single goal and a couple of draws, suggesting goals might be hard to come by again.

Given that Palmeiras are playing at home and have a good record against Vasco in recent meetings, they appear to be the stronger side. However, Vasco are tough to beat and have shown they can grind out results, making this a fairly close contest. Palmeiras are the more likely winners, but a draw would not be a surprise outcome.

Last Updated: 19 Aug 2026 07:26 PM
starting lineups
 
Carlos Miguel
 
Alexander Barboza
 
Gustavo Gómez
 
A. Giay
 
Arthur Gabriel
6.9
 
Marlon Freitas
 
A. Pereira
 
Allan
7.7
 
Maurício
9.3
 
J. López
7.3
 
Vitor Roque
 
Leo Jardim
 
Cuiabano
6
 
Robert Renan
 
Paulo Henrique
 
S. Sosa
6.3
 
Thiago Mendes
 
Tche Tche
 
Adson
 
David
field field
substitutes
Substitutes for Palmeiras
71
' Out: A. Giay
83
Substitutes for Vasco DA Gama
' Out: Cuiabano
58
58' Out: Thiago Mendes
58
65
' Out: David
65
72' Out:
72
statistics
57 Ball Possession 43
4 Goals 1
1.65 Expected Goals 1.62
match facts

REFEREE

B. da Silva Machado

  • Palmeiras are strong favourites at home, with the prediction giving them a 45% win probability, while Vasco da Gama are rated at just 10%.
  • The stats heavily favour the hosts: Palmeiras average 1.49 goals per game compared to Vasco's 1.13, and they also register more shots (15.47 vs 12.20).
  • Palmeiras dominate possession on average (53.24%), and their median possession in matches is 54%, compared to Vasco's 46%.
  • Form is clearly in Palmeiras' favour, with the comparison giving them a 78% edge over Vasco's 22% based on recent results.
  • The attacking comparison is heavily one-sided—Palmeiras hold a 91% advantage over Vasco, who are rated at just 9%.
  • Defensively, the two sides are evenly matched, with both teams rated at 50% in the pre-match defensive comparison.
  • The Poisson distribution model gives Palmeiras a 74% chance of outscoring Vasco, while the visitors are rated at just 26%.
  • Head-to-head history strongly favours the home side, with Palmeiras holding an 80% edge; however, Vasco won the most recent meeting 2-1 in March 2026.
  • Palmeiras have won three of their last five matches, including a 4-0 away victory and a 3-1 away win, but lost their most recent game 3-2.
  • Vasco are unbeaten in their last four league games, with their only recent loss coming away from home, a 1-0 defeat.
  • The prediction advice suggests a "Double Chance: Palmeiras or Draw" bet, and the bookmaker Betano offers odds of 1.18 for this outcome.
  • Both teams have identical records in their last five matches—each with two wins, two draws, and one loss—though Palmeiras have scored more goals overall.
Last Updated: 19 Aug 2026 07:26 PM
head to head team stats
Total
Per Match
47 Corners 30
123 Fouls 110
8 Offsides 6
109 Shots 84
33 Shots on Goal 25
16 Yellow Cards 16
0 Red Cards 0
13 Goals 6
6 Goals Conceded 13
4 Clean Sheets 0
serie a standings
#
Team
PL
W
D
L
GD
PTS
#2
27
16
8
3
26
56
#16
27
7
8
12
-12
29