Vasco DA Gama vs Santos

Vasco DA Gama
l l l d d
0 - 3
1.04
xG
1.91
Full Time
Santos
l w l d l
Gabriel Barbosa
68'
Willian Arão
77'
Luan Peres
81'
Predictions
Stats
Odds
Predictions

Double chance : draw or Santos

Vasco da Gama is hosting Santos in a Serie A match. Vasco is in a rough patch, drawing their last three games (including two 0-0s) and losing the one before that, so they are struggling to find wins and their attack looks very quiet. Santos, on the other hand, are in better shape, coming off a strong away win and having mixed results recently, but they look more solid overall.

The recent meetings between these two have been high-scoring, with results like 2-1, 4-1, and 2-2, so there is a history of open games. However, this match looks very close, with both teams creating similar chances. Despite that, Santos' better recent form and stronger attack suggest they have the edge. I believe this will end in a draw or a narrow Santos win.

Last Updated: 14 Aug 2026 06:00 PM
starting lineups
 
Leo Jardim
 
Lucas Piton
6.7
 
Robert Renan
5.9
 
Paulo Henrique
 
Thiago Mendes
 
Jair
 
F. Colidio
 
Tche Tche
 
C. Spinelli
 
Gabriel Brazao
 
G. Escobar
7.9
 
Luan Peres
8.6
 
Willian Arão
 
Igor Vinicius
 
Joao Schmidt
 
C. Oliva
 
A. Barreal
 
G. Caballero
7.5
 
Gabriel Barbosa
field field
substitutes
Substitutes for Vasco DA Gama
' Out: Jair
14
65
' Out: Lucas Piton
66
Substitutes for Santos
' Out: C. Oliva
62
' Out: A. Barreal
62
' Out: Joao Schmidt
89
statistics
57 Ball Possession 43
0 Goals 3
1.04 Expected Goals 1.91
match facts

REFEREE

L. Casagrande

  • This Serie A clash at Vasco da Gama's ground is expected to be extremely tight, with both teams holding an equal 45% chance of winning according to the prediction model.
  • Santos enter the match in better form, with their latest victory (2-0) on the road contrasting with Vasco's three consecutive draws at home.
  • The betting markets favour the visitors, with the "Draw or Santos" double chance being the safest bet at odds of 1.87 with Betano.
  • Despite the predicted outcome, home advantage matters in this fixture historically—Vasco have taken 40% of the points in their last five head-to-head meetings.
  • Santos have lost their last two matches against Vasco at this venue, including a 2-1 defeat in their most recent meeting in February 2026.
  • Goal-scoring is likely to be scarce, as both teams average just over one goal per game (Vasco: 1.13, Santos: 1.15) this season.
  • The last three encounters between these two sides saw the home team win each time, creating a potential trap for Santos backers despite their superior form.
  • Vasco's recent draws are not attacking masterclasses—three of their last four games finished 0-0 or 1-1, showing a defensive approach.
  • Santos' away form tells a contrasting story: they've scored in every match on the road, but their defence has leaked goals in defeats, with back-to-back losses in May and July.
  • The match appears midfield-dominated, with possession split almost evenly in overall stats (50.68% vs 50.73%), but a key quirk is that the median possession stats show Santos dominating with 59% in their last games.
  • Statistical analysis gives Santos a clear edge in attack, with a staggering 89% advantage in attacking output compared to Vasco's 11%.
  • Both sides are evenly matched at the back, yet Vasco's defensive record (63% advantage) provides their best hope of earning a point against Santos' offensive power.
Last Updated: 14 Aug 2026 06:00 PM
head to head team stats
Total
Per Match
34 Corners 24
104 Fouls 93
5 Offsides 13
84 Shots 74
24 Shots on Goal 25
13 Yellow Cards 9
1 Red Cards 2
5 Goals 12
12 Goals Conceded 5
1 Clean Sheets 2
serie a standings
#
Team
PL
W
D
L
GD
PTS
#10
27
9
9
9
0
36
#16
27
7
8
12
-12
29