Arouca head into this match in poor form. They have lost three of their last five games, with only one win in that run, and that victory came away from home. Their recent matches have regularly seen goals at both ends, suggesting their defence has been leaky. Casa Pia, on the other hand, have been in much better shape. They have lost just once in their last five outings, winning two and drawing two, and they have been particularly solid at the back, keeping three clean sheets in that period.

Looking at the history between these two sides, their recent meetings have been very tight and often low-scoring. Arouca have won just once in the last ten games between the clubs, while Casa Pia have won four times. Many of the recent head-to-head matches have had two goals or fewer. Given Arouca's current struggles and Casa Pia's strong recent form, the away side look the stronger team here and are likely to win a close, competitive match.