Sao Paulo vs Bahia
Predictions
|
Probability %
1
x
2
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sao Paulo
Bahia
|
Probability %
1
x
2
47%
28%
24%
|
Pred
1
|
Avg. Goal
2.57
|
Score Pred.
2-0
|
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sao Paulo
Bahia
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
53%
47%
|
Pred
Under
|
Avg. Goal
2.57
|
Score Pred.
2-0
|
| HŠ¢/FT Probability % | HT Pred. | FT Pred. | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sao Paulo
Bahia
|
HŠ¢/FT Probability %
27%
|
HT Pred.
1
|
FT Pred.
1
|
Score Pred.
2-0
|
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sao Paulo
Bahia
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
51%
49%
|
Pred
Yes
|
Avg. Goal
2.57
|
Score Pred.
2-0
|
| Probability % | Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sao Paulo
Bahia
|
Probability %
59%
|
Pred
Away -0.75
|
Avg. Goal
2.57
|
Score Pred.
2-0
|
Double chance : Sao Paulo or draw
SĆ£o Paulo is really struggling at the moment. They've lost their last four games in a row and only have one draw to show from their last five matches. That's a tough run, and they'll be desperate to turn things around.
Bahia has been more mixed. They have two wins and a draw in their last five games, but they've also lost twice. Recent matches between these two teams have often been tight and low-scoring, with three of the last four meetings finishing with two goals or fewer. Given SĆ£o Paulo's poor form, this match looks like it could be a close one, but on current results, you'd have to favor a draw or a narrow win for the home side.
Last Updated: 01 May 2026 06:00 PM- SĆ£o Paulo are on a terrible run of form, losing their last four Serie A matches, while Bahia come into the fixture with mixed recent results, having lost two of their last five away games.
- History is clearly on SĆ£o Paulo's side: the home team has won 80% of the head-to-head comparison according to pre-match data, boosting their confidence despite the poor recent run.
- Bahia have only a 10% chance of winning this match according to the prediction model, with SĆ£o Paulo and the draw both rated at 45% each.
- The last four encounters between these sides have been low-scoring affairs with under 2.5 goals, suggesting a tight contest is on the cards again.
- SĆ£o Paulo dominate possession on average (58.42%) compared to Bahia (50.15%), which could play a key role in controlling the tempo of the game.
- The home side have been struggling defensively, conceding at least one goal in each of their last five league games, including three with four or more goals against them.
- Bahia have shown better away form recently, with two wins in their last three away league matches, proving they can pick up points on the road.
- SĆ£o Paulo's attack is slightly less dangerous than Bahia's, with a 47% attacking rating vs the visitors' 53%, a marginal but notable difference.
- Despite their awful recent form, the prediction analysis recommends a "Double Chance: SĆ£o Paulo or Draw" bet, with William Hill offering odds of 1.29 for that market.
- Median stats indicate Bahia are expected to have slightly more possession (52.5%) than SĆ£o Paulo (47.5%), potentially reversing their usual styles.
- The head-to-head record is heavily tilted towards SĆ£o Paulo, with the home side winning four of the last eight meetings, including a 3-0 away win in their most recent clash in November 2024.
- SĆ£o Paulo average 1.29 goals per game while Bahia average 1.24, making this a matchup between two sides with nearly identical attacking output in the league.
Total
Per Match
44
Corners
45
119
Fouls
105
24
Offsides
7
114
Shots
110
46
Shots on Goal
33
15
Yellow Cards
16
0
Red Cards
0
12
Goals
4
4
Goals Conceded
12
4
Clean Sheets
2
Last matches for SAO 
Serie A 2026-2027
03 MAY, 2026
Sao Paulo
0
Bahia
0
D
Serie A 2026-2027
26 APR, 2026
Sao Paulo
1
Mirassol
0
W
Serie A 2026-2027
18 APR, 2026
Sao Paulo
1
Vasco DA Gama
2
L
Serie A 2026-2027
11 APR, 2026
Sao Paulo
0
Vitoria
2
L
Serie A 2026-2027
04 APR, 2026
Sao Paulo
4
Cruzeiro
1
W
Serie A 2026-2027
01 APR, 2026
Sao Paulo
1
Internacional
1
D
Serie A 2026-2027
22 MAR, 2026
Sao Paulo
0
Palmeiras
1
L
Serie A 2026-2027
18 MAR, 2026
Sao Paulo
0
Atletico-MG
1
L
Serie A 2026-2027
15 MAR, 2026
Sao Paulo
2
RB Bragantino
1
W
Serie A 2026-2027
12 MAR, 2026
Sao Paulo
2
Chapecoense-sc
0
W
Last matches for BAH
Serie A 2026-2027
03 MAY, 2026
Bahia
0
Sao Paulo
0
D
Serie A 2026-2027
25 APR, 2026
Bahia
2
Santos
2
D
Serie A 2026-2027
19 APR, 2026
Bahia
0
Flamengo
2
L
Serie A 2026-2027
11 APR, 2026
Bahia
2
Mirassol
1
W
Serie A 2026-2027
05 APR, 2026
Bahia
1
Palmeiras
2
L
Serie A 2026-2027
01 APR, 2026
Bahia
3
Atletico Paranaense
0
W
Serie A 2026-2027
22 MAR, 2026
Bahia
1
remo
4
L
Serie A 2026-2027
18 MAR, 2026
Bahia
2
RB Bragantino
0
W
Serie A 2026-2027
15 MAR, 2026
Bahia
1
Internacional
0
W
Serie A 2026-2027
11 MAR, 2026
Bahia
1
Vitoria
1
D
#
Team
PL
W
D
L
GD
PTS
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
HIGHEST ODDS
2.05
Dafabet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.99
Pinnacle
97.25 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
Dafabet
2.05
3.45
3.85
96.39%
Unibet
2.04
3.35
3.65
94.10%
1xBet
Bonus
2.04
3.40
3.89
96.03%
Pinnacle
2.03
3.45
3.99
96.80%
Betano
2.02
3.35
3.90
95.24%
HIGHEST ODDS
2.67
Pinnacle
2.26
Pinnacle
4.55
Pinnacle
96.45 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
Pinnacle
2.67
2.26
4.55
96.45%
Betano
2.67
2.05
4.40
91.78%
Unibet
2.65
2.15
4.10
92.05%
Betfair
2.63
2.10
4.00
90.38%
Bet365
2.62
2.10
4.50
92.58%
HIGHEST ODDS
2.40
William Hill
2.55
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
94.44 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
William Hill
2.40
2.30
3.80
89.72%
Unibet
2.40
2.55
3.65
92.35%
888Sport
Bonus
2.40
2.30
3.80
89.72%
Betano
2.35
2.45
3.80
91.17%
Marathonbet
2.31
2.41
3.88
90.45%
