AZ Alkmaar are not in great shape right now. Their last five games have all been draws or a loss, and three of those draws ended with each team scoring two or more goals, which shows their defense has been shaky. At home, they have not won in a while. On the other hand, Excelsior have been picking up wins on the road recently, with victories in two of their last five away games, though they also had one heavy loss. When these two teams have met in the past, the matches have often seen goals, with several ending in draws and a few blowout wins for AZ.

This match looks fairly open because both teams have been involved in high-scoring games lately, and the head-to-head history suggests goals are likely. Given AZ's recent struggles to win and Excelsior's good away form, this could be a close contest. I think a draw is the most likely outcome here.