Lecce vs Genoa
Lameck Banda
6'
Predictions
|
Probability %
1
x
2
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lecce
Genoa
|
Probability %
1
x
2
50%
29%
20%
|
Pred
1
|
Avg. Goal
2.23
|
Score Pred.
2-0
|
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lecce
Genoa
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
62%
38%
|
Pred
Under
|
Avg. Goal
2.23
|
Score Pred.
2-0
|
| HŠ¢/FT Probability % | HT Pred. | FT Pred. | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lecce
Genoa
|
HŠ¢/FT Probability %
29%
|
HT Pred.
1
|
FT Pred.
1
|
Score Pred.
2-0
|
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lecce
Genoa
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
44%
56%
|
Pred
No
|
Avg. Goal
2.23
|
Score Pred.
2-0
|
| Probability % | Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lecce
Genoa
|
Probability %
58%
|
Pred
Away -0.75
|
Avg. Goal
2.23
|
Score Pred.
2-0
|
Combo Double chance : Lecce or draw and -3.5 goals
Lecce come into this match on a great run of form, having won their last three games and drawn the two before that. They have been scoring consistently and look to be in really good shape. Genoa, their opponents, have also been playing well, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, so both sides are full of confidence.
The only recent meeting between these two teams ended in a 0-0 draw, suggesting that goals might be hard to come by again. With both teams in strong form and the head-to-head being tight, this is a very close match. Given Lecce's excellent recent run and home advantage, they seem to have a slight edge and should be able to avoid defeat in what looks like a tight, low-scoring affair. A draw is also a very possible outcome.
Last Updated: 22 May 2026 06:00 PMĀ
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Ā
Substitutes for Lecce 
O. Gandelman
' Out: O. Ngom
46
K. Ndri
65' Out: Lameck Banda
65
N. Å tuliÄ
' Out: W. Cheddira
80
Gaby Jean
' Out: S. Pierotti
80
K. Gaspar
89' Out: Y. Ramadani
89
Substitutes for Genoa
B. Norton-Cuffy
' Out: AarĆ³n MartĆn
60
W. L. Ouedraogo
' Out: S. Sabelli
60
J. Grossi
' Out: Amorim
69
G. Lafont
' Out: A. Marcandalli
83
F. Carbone
' Out: P. Masini
83
REFEREE
D. Doveri
- Lecce are on a red-hot three-match winning streak in Serie A, including impressive 2-3 and 1-2 away victories.
- Genoa have won three of their last five matches, with only one defeat in that run, showing solid form heading into this fixture.
- The only recent head-to-head meeting this season ended in a 0-0 stalemate, suggesting a tight contest could be on the cards.
- Lecce average just 0.71 goals per game, making them one of the lowest-scoring sides in the league, but their recent wins buck that trend.
- Genoa hold a clear edge in average possession (48.19% vs 41.92%) and shots per game (11.51 vs 9.81), indicating they dominate the ball.
- Median stats show Genoa average 7 shots per game compared to Lecce's 5, underlining their superior attacking output.
- The prediction model gives Lecce a 35% chance of winning, with the same odds for a draw, making this a finely balanced matchup.
- Based on overall team strength, the model rates Genoa as slight favorites with a 50.7% edge over Lecce's 49.3%.
- Despite Genoa's higher attacking threat, Lecce actually have a 67% advantage in the attack comparison metric, suggesting they create better quality chances.
- The Poisson distribution heavily favors Genoa with a 64% likelihood of scoring more, hinting at potential for a Genoa goal.
- Neither side has shown dominant defensive form, with both teams rated evenly at 50% in the defensive comparison.
- The suggested betting tip is a "Lecce or Draw" double chance with under 3.5 goals, reflecting expectations of a low-scoring, close affair.
1/
1/
0
WINS
DRAWS
WINS
Total
Per Match
8
Corners
9
24
Fouls
22
5
Offsides
2
16
Shots
13
4
Shots on Goal
3
5
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Goals
0
0
Goals Conceded
1
2
Clean Sheets
1
Last matches for LEC 
Serie A 2025-2026
24 MAY, 2026
Lecce
1
Genoa
0
W
Serie A 2025-2026
17 MAY, 2026
Lecce
3
Sassuolo
2
W
Serie A 2025-2026
09 MAY, 2026
Lecce
0
Juventus
1
L
Serie A 2025-2026
01 MAY, 2026
Lecce
2
Pisa
1
W
Serie A 2025-2026
25 APR, 2026
Lecce
0
Verona
0
D
Serie A 2025-2026
20 APR, 2026
Lecce
1
Fiorentina
1
D
Serie A 2025-2026
12 APR, 2026
Lecce
0
Bologna
2
L
Serie A 2025-2026
06 APR, 2026
Lecce
0
Atalanta
3
L
Serie A 2025-2026
22 MAR, 2026
Lecce
0
AS Roma
1
L
Serie A 2025-2026
08 MAR, 2026
Lecce
2
Cremonese
1
W
Last matches for GEN
Serie A 2025-2026
24 MAY, 2026
Genoa
0
Lecce
1
L
Serie A 2025-2026
17 MAY, 2026
Genoa
1
AC Milan
2
L
Serie A 2025-2026
10 MAY, 2026
Genoa
0
Fiorentina
0
D
Serie A 2025-2026
02 MAY, 2026
Genoa
0
Atalanta
0
D
Serie A 2025-2026
26 APR, 2026
Genoa
0
Como
2
L
Serie A 2025-2026
19 APR, 2026
Genoa
2
Pisa
1
W
Serie A 2025-2026
12 APR, 2026
Genoa
2
Sassuolo
1
W
Serie A 2025-2026
06 APR, 2026
Genoa
0
Juventus
2
L
Serie A 2025-2026
20 MAR, 2026
Genoa
0
Udinese
2
L
Serie A 2025-2026
08 MAR, 2026
Genoa
2
AS Roma
1
W
#
Team
PL
W
D
L
GD
PTS
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
HIGHEST ODDS
2.04
1xBet
3.50
Unknown
5.10
Unknown
102.88 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
1xBet
Bonus
2.04
3.35
4.43
98.58%
Betano
2.02
3.25
4.50
97.56%
Marathonbet
1.99
3.28
4.33
96.31%
Pinnacle
1.96
3.32
4.59
97.16%
10Bet
1.95
3.20
4.10
93.53%
HIGHEST ODDS
2.68
Pinnacle
2.12
Unknown
5.76
Pinnacle
98.19 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
Pinnacle
2.68
2.05
5.76
96.66%
Marathonbet
2.65
1.95
5.10
92.06%
1xBet
Bonus
2.65
1.95
5.10
92.06%
Betano
2.65
1.98
4.85
91.86%
Unknown
2.55
1.95
5.25
91.29%
HIGHEST ODDS
2.40
10Bet
2.43
Unibet
4.80
Unknown
96.48 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
10Bet
2.40
2.25
3.95
89.74%
William Hill
2.38
2.15
4.60
90.69%
888Sport
Bonus
2.38
2.15
4.60
90.69%
Betano
2.37
2.22
4.40
90.94%
Marathonbet
2.34
2.26
4.60
91.98%
