Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense

Vasco DA Gama
l d w l d
1 - 0
2.22
xG
0.66
Full Time
Atletico Paranaense
l w l w d
Thiago Mendes
37'
Predictions
Stats
Odds
Predictions
Probability %
1 x 2
Pred. Avg. Goal Score Pred.
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
Probability %
1 x 2
51%
28%
20%
Pred
1
Avg. Goal
2.38
Score Pred.
2-0
Probability %
Under / Over 2.5
Pred. Avg. Goal Score Pred.
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
Probability %
Under / Over 2.5
58%
42%
Pred
Under
Avg. Goal
2.38
Score Pred.
2-0
HŠ¢/FT Probability % HT Pred. FT Pred. Score Pred.
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
HŠ¢/FT Probability %
29%
HT Pred.
1
FT Pred.
1
Score Pred.
2-0
Probability %
Yes/ No
Pred. Avg. Goal Score Pred.
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
Probability %
Yes/ No
47%
53%
Pred
No
Avg. Goal
2.38
Score Pred.
2-0
Probability % Pred. Avg. Goal Score Pred.
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
Probability %
55%
Pred
Away -0.75
Avg. Goal
2.38
Score Pred.
2-0

Double chance : Vasco DA Gama or draw

Vasco da Gama have been struggling recently, with three losses and two draws in their last five matches. They have only managed to win one of those games, and while they have been scoring, they have also been conceding goals pretty freely. Atletico Paranaense are in even worse shape, having lost four of their last five away games and drawing the other one without scoring. They have been very poor on the road, finding goals hard to come by.

Looking at recent meetings between the sides, the games have often been tight and low-scoring, with several 1-0 results. The most recent match was a 2-1 win for Atletico Paranaense. Given how badly Atletico Paranaense have been playing away from home, and Vasco's own inconsistent form, this looks like a close match where a draw is a very possible outcome, though Vasco might just have the edge as the home side.

Last Updated: 08 May 2026 07:21 PM
starting lineups
Ā 
Leo Jardim
Ā 
Lucas Piton
7.9
Ā 
Robert Renan
8.3
Ā 
Thiago Mendes
Ā 
Hugo Moura
7
Ā 
J. Rojas
Ā 
Adson
Ā 
C. Spinelli
Ā 
Santos
Ā 
Arthur Dias
Ā 
F. Aguirre
Ā 
C. Teran
Ā 
S. Mendoza
Ā 
Luiz Gustavo
Ā 
João Cruz
Ā 
Renan Peixoto
field field
substitutes
Substitutes for Vasco DA Gama
Tche Tche
69' Out: J. Rojas
69
Nuno Moreira
' Out: Adson
77
Brenner
' Out: C. Spinelli
77
Lucas Freitas
' Out: Lucas Piton
90
90' Out:
90
Substitutes for Atletico Paranaense
' Out: C. Teran
11
Felipinho
' Out: Luiz Gustavo
64
Chiqueti
' Out:
73
B. Zapelli
' Out:
73
Isaac
' Out: Renan Peixoto
73
statistics
55 Ball Possession 45
1 Goals 0
2.22 Expected Goals 0.66
match facts

REFEREE

R. Claus

  • Vasco da Gama hosts Athletico Paranaense in a Serie A match with the odds leaning slightly towards the home side, but a draw is a strong possibility (35%).
  • The last six head-to-head meetings have been tight, with no clear favorite: Vasco has 1 win, Athletico 3, and 2 draws.
  • Vasco’s recent form is poor, with 4 matches without a win (2 losses, 2 draws) in their last five outings.
  • Athletico Paranaense are in even worse form, winless in their last five matches, suffering four defeats and one draw.
  • Vasco averages 1.12 goals per game, while Athletico scores slightly more at 1.26, suggesting a low-scoring affair is likely.
  • Athletico hold a significant advantage in defensive stats (64% vs 36%), indicating a potential struggle for Vasco to break them down.
  • The Poisson distribution heavily favors Vasco (63%), suggesting they are the more likely side to score based on expected goals.
  • Vasco’s median shots per game (16.5) are much higher than Athletico’s (9), hinting at more attacking pressure from the home team.
  • Athletico’s average possession (48.3%) is slightly lower than Vasco’s (50.5%), but they are more efficient with the ball when they have it.
  • The best betting advice according to the data is "Double Chance: Vasco da Gama or Draw," with odds of 1.28 at Betano.
  • Vasco has lost their last two home matches, while Athletico have lost three consecutive away games, creating a clash of poor form.
  • The total prediction is almost evenly split (48.5% vs 51.5%), reinforcing the uncertainty and potential for a draw or narrow result.
Last Updated: 08 May 2026 07:21 PM
head to head team stats
Total
Per Match
30 Corners 28
81 Fouls 97
17 Offsides 9
74 Shots 100
22 Shots on Goal 32
13 Yellow Cards 9
1 Red Cards 2
4 Goals 7
7 Goals Conceded 4
3 Clean Sheets 4
serie a standings
#
Team
PL
W
D
L
GD
PTS
#5
15
7
2
6
4
23
#7
15
5
5
5
0
20
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half

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1.92
10Bet
3.50
Betano
4.88
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98.87 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
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Betano Betano Logo
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2.54
Pinnacle
2.17
Pinnacle
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BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
Pinnacle Pinnacle Logo
2.54
2.17
5.42
96.24%
10Bet 10Bet Logo
2.50
2.05
4.33
89.39%
Bet365 Bet365 Logo
2.50
2.05
5.00
91.93%
Unibet Unibet Logo
2.50
2.10
4.60
91.44%
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2.50
1.98
4.84
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HIGHEST ODDS

2.28
Unibet
2.43
Unibet
4.55
Marathonbet
93.47 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
Unibet Unibet Logo
2.28
2.43
4.10
91.41%
Betano Betano Logo
2.27
2.30
4.50
91.11%
10Bet 10Bet Logo
2.25
2.30
4.20
89.50%
William Hill William Hill Logo
2.25
2.25
4.50
90.00%
888Sport 888Sport Logo
Bonus
2.25
2.25
4.50
90.00%