Vitoria vs Gremio
|
Probability %
1
x
2
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Vitoria
Gremio
|
Probability %
1
x
2
45%
29%
27%
|
Pred
1
|
Avg. Goal
2.45
|
Score Pred.
2-0
|
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitoria
Gremio
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
56%
44%
|
Pred
Under
|
Avg. Goal
2.45
|
Score Pred.
2-0
|
| HТ/FT Probability % | HT Pred. | FT Pred. | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitoria
Gremio
|
HТ/FT Probability %
25%
|
HT Pred.
1
|
FT Pred.
1
|
Score Pred.
2-0
|
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitoria
Gremio
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
51%
49%
|
Pred
Yes
|
Avg. Goal
2.45
|
Score Pred.
2-0
|
| Probability % | Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitoria
Gremio
|
Probability %
61%
|
Pred
Away -0.75
|
Avg. Goal
2.45
|
Score Pred.
2-0
|
Double chance : draw or Gremio
Vitoria are heading into this match in poor form, having lost three of their last five games, including their most recent outing. Their only wins in that stretch came away from home, and they have struggled to score consistently, with several matches ending in defeat by a single goal or more. Gremio, on the other hand, are in a serious slump, having lost four straight matches and failing to win any of their last five. They have been conceding goals heavily and look short of confidence. In their recent meetings, Vitoria have not beaten Gremio, with the last two games ending in a draw and a defeat for the home side, and the overall head-to-head has not been high-scoring, with most games finishing with two goals or fewer.
Given that both sides are struggling, this is shaping up to be a tight and cagey affair rather than a wide-open game. Because Gremio's recent results have been so poor, but Vitoria have also been inconsistent and have a poor record against their opponents, this feels like a very close match. The game could easily end in a draw, though Gremio might have just enough to edge it based on their slightly stronger recent head-to-head record, meaning a draw or a narrow Gremio win is the most likely outcome.
Last Updated: 05 Sep 2026 07:20 PM
Substitutes for Gremio 
REFEREE
S. Sampaio
- Vitoria and Gremio have a perfectly balanced recent head-to-head record, with no wins for the home side in their last three meetings (two defeats and one draw).
- Gremio are heavy favorites per bookmakers, with a 45% win probability and a double chance (Draw/Away) valued at 1.80 at Bet365.
- Vitoria have lost four of their last five matches, managing just two wins in that stretch, signaling poor pre-match form.
- Gremio are winless in their last five away games, losing four and drawing one, which highlights their struggles on the road.
- Vitoria's last two home losses in this fixture both came with the same 2-0 scoreline, hinting at a recurring defensive vulnerability against Gremio.
- Gremio average more goals per match (1.40) than Vitoria (1.09), but their attacking edge is slight, while Vitoria have a lower defensive efficiency (41%).
- Possession is expected to be nearly split, with Gremio holding a marginal 51% median advantage, suggesting a midfield battle.
- The Poisson distribution gives Vitoria a surprising 80% edge, a stark contrast to overall predictions, pointing to a potential lower-scoring game.
- Gremio lead strongly in the attack comparison (75%), but Vitoria's defense is more competitive, with only a 18% difference in their favor.
- Vitoria average just 1.09 goals per game, making them prone to low-scoring encounters, while Gremio concede frequently on the road.
- In terms of cards, Gremio are more disciplined with a median of 1 yellow card per match, while Vitoria average 3, risking a more physical contest.
- Kickoff is scheduled for September 7, 2026, at 23:00 GMT, with the stadium location currently unknown, adding an element of uncertainty to home advantage.
Last matches for VIT 
Serie A 2026-2027
Vitoria
0
Mirassol
0
Serie A 2026-2027
Vitoria
1
Gremio
0
Serie A 2026-2027
Vitoria
1
Atletico-MG
2
Serie A 2026-2027
Vitoria
0
Bahia
2
Serie A 2026-2027
Vitoria
1
Botafogo
0
Serie A 2026-2027
Vitoria
0
Flamengo
2
Serie A 2026-2027
Vitoria
0
Palmeiras
4
Serie A 2026-2027
Vitoria
0
remo
2
Serie A 2026-2027
Vitoria
0
Botafogo
0
Serie A 2026-2027
Vitoria
1
Vasco DA Gama
0
Last matches for GRE
Serie A 2026-2027
Gremio
1
Vasco DA Gama
2
Serie A 2026-2027
Gremio
0
Vitoria
1
Serie A 2026-2027
Gremio
3
Chapecoense-sc
1
Serie A 2026-2027
Gremio
0
RB Bragantino
1
Serie A 2026-2027
Gremio
0
Atletico-MG
3
Serie A 2026-2027
Gremio
2
Sao Paulo
1
Serie A 2026-2027
Gremio
1
Fluminense
1
Serie A 2026-2027
Gremio
1
Mirassol
2
Serie A 2026-2027
Gremio
1
Corinthians
3
Serie A 2026-2027
Gremio
1
Bahia
1
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